Just over a year away, on November 5, 2024, the US goes to the polls for the 60th quadrennial presidential elections to choose the next president and vice-president of the United States. The incumbent is Joe Biden and his vice president Kamala Harris.
Long Road Ahead
While we are still many months away from the big day, we will soon be gearing up for a flurry of activity and an intense campaigning period ahead of the candidates’ confirmation.
Hats in the Ring
The logistics of running presidential campaigns and the funds involved means that candidates would normally announce their candidacy well ahead of time. According to a list maintained by Ballotpedia, which states that at the time of writing, it was last updated on October 2, 2023, 17 candidates have so far thrown their hats into the ring.
The Usual (and Unusual) Suspects
Many people have already declared their candidacy or intention to run for president, including incumbent US President Joe Biden, former US President Donald Trump, and a number of people from both sides of the political and business establishment alike.
There Can Only Be One
In practice, most voters will only have a choice of 2 or more candidates, one from each major political party, the Democrats or the Republicans, plus any other independent or third-party candidates.
The Democratic and Republican candidates will be whittled down to the final two in a series of state elections, the equivalent of political ‘Survivor.’
Primaries and Caucuses
These elections, called the Primaries or the Caucuses, differ in how they are organized and who takes part.
Primaries are votes held through a secret ballot and are typically run by local or state governments. Depending on the state you are voting in, you may be able to vote regardless of your political affiliation. However, some states only allow party members to vote.
The political parties organize Caucuses at county or district levels, with the number of people supporting the respective candidate determining the number of votes.
Timelines
These votes will be held throughout 2024, with various states going to the polls for each respective party to choose their candidates. The first Republican caucus will be held in Iowa on January 15, 2024, and soon after the first Republican primary in New Hampshire. The First Democratic primary will be held in South Carolina on February 3, 2024.
Super Tuesday and the Race to the Finish
On March 5, 2024, there will be ‘Super Tuesday,’ the first major event in which a number of states go to the polls. The candidates will be officially announced at the parties’ respective National Conventions, with the Republican candidate being announced in July in Milwaukee and the Democratic candidate being announced in August in Chicago.
Bookies’ Favorites?
So, who are the favorites? Here are the top 10 candidates based on their odds according to bookmaking odds aggregator Oddschecker as of the date of this article. Odds are based on the most attractive odds available per candidate.
While this is all subject to change, interestingly, many declared candidates do not make the top 10, whereas some of the bookies’ favorites are not declared at all.
Gretchen Whitemer
Gretchen Whitemer: 220/1 (Betfair)
Implied Probability: 0.5%
Democrat, Lawyer, and Politician, serving as Governor of Michigan since 2019.
Vivek Ramaswamy
Vivek Ramaswamy: 47/1 (Betfair)
Implied Probability: 2.1%
Republican, entrepreneur, with degrees from both Harvard and Yale, who worked in finance before founding Roivant Sciences in 2014.
Kamala Harris
Kamala Harris: 39/1 (Betfair)*
Implied Probability: 2.5%
Democrat, current vice-president of the United States, first female vice-president. Previously served as the Attorney General for California and the US Senator for California.
*Not a declared candidate.
Nikki Haley
Nikki Haley: 28/1 (William Hill)
Implied Probability: 3.4%
Republican, politician and diplomat who served as governor of South Carolina and US Ambassador to the United Nations.
Ron DeSantis
Ron DeSantis: 25/1 (Betfair)
Implied Probability: 3.8%
Republican politician serving as governor of Florida.
Michelle Obama
Michelle Obama: 18/1 (William Hill)*
Implied Probability: 5.3%
Democrat, attorney, and author who served as the first lady of the United States and wife of former US president Barack Obama.
*Not a declared candidate.
Robert Kennedy Jr
Robert Kennedy Jr: 14/1 (William Hill)
Implied Probability: 6.7%
Democrat, environmental attorney, son of Robert F. Kennedy, and nephew of President John F. Kennedy.
Gavin Newsom
Gavin Newsom: 12/1 (Betfair)*
Implied Probability: 7.7%
Democrat, politician, and businessman (founder of PlumpJack Group), currently serving as governor of California.
*Not a declared candidate.
Joe Biden
Joe Biden: 9/4 (Sky Bet)
Implied Probability: 30.4%
Democrat, current President of the United States, politician.
Donald Trump
Donald Trump: 9/5 (Matchbook)
Implied Probability: 35.7%
Republican, businessman, and former President of the United States.
